Millions Bet on Snowfall Totals as Winter Storm Brings Chaos to US
As a powerful winter storm swept across the United States, millions of dollars were wagered on the snowfall totals in various cities. The prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, saw a surge in bets, with some locations attracting over $6 million in wagers alone.Bettors Flock to Prediction Markets
The winter storm brought about a frenzy of activity on prediction markets, where bettors could wager on the expected snowfall totals. Polymarket and Kalshi, two popular platforms, saw a significant increase in bets, with some locations attracting substantial amounts of money. For instance, over $6 million was wagered on New York City's snowfall totals alone.
New York City Sees Heaviest Betting
The Big Apple proved to be the most popular destination for bettors, with a market titled 'How many inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26)' attracting over $1.2 million in wagers. The implied consensus snowfall total for New York City was 11 inches, based on bets placed through Monday.
Snowfall Data from NOAA to Determine Outcomes
The prediction markets relied on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to determine the outcomes. The 'New Snow (IN)' daily figures for the New York-Central Park area were used to calculate the snowfall totals. Betters won't be able to cash out or notch losses until the official totals are released by NOAA.
Most Popular Wager: 10-12 Inches of Snow
The most popular wager for New York City was in the 10- to 12-inch range, with shares predicting snowfall within that bracket trading at 90 cents each on Monday morning. This indicates a strong consensus among bettors that the city would receive between 10 and 12 inches of snow.
The winter storm brought about a unique phenomenon, where millions of dollars were wagered on snowfall totals in various cities. The prediction markets provided an interesting insight into the public's perception of weather events, highlighting the importance of accurate forecasting and data collection. As the official totals are released by NOAA, bettors will finally know whether their predictions came true or not.
